Macro-economic forecasts are often based on the interaction between econometric models and experts. A forecast that is based only on an econometric model is replicable and may be unbiased, whereas a forecast that is not based only on an econometric model, but also incorporates an expert’s touch, is non-replicable and is typically biased. In this paper we propose a methodology to analyze the qualities of combined non-replicable forecasts. One part of the methodology seeks to retrieve a replicable component from the non-replicable forecasts, and compares this component against the actual data. A second part modifies the estimation routine due to the assumption that the difference between a replicable and a non-replicable forecast involves a measurement error. An empirical example to forecast economic fundamentals for Taiwan shows the relevance of the methodological approach.

Additional Metadata
Keywords combined forecasts, efficient estimation, expert’s intuition, generated regressors, non-replicable forecasts, replicable forecasts
JEL Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions (jel C22), Forecasting and Other Model Applications (jel C53), Forecasting and Simulation (jel E27), Forecasting and Simulation (jel E37)
Publisher Erasmus School of Economics
Persistent URL
Series Econometric Institute Research Papers
Journal Report / Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Chang, C-L, McAleer, M.J, & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. (2010). Combining Non-Replicable Forecasts (No. EI 2010-44). Report / Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam. Erasmus School of Economics. Retrieved from