Predicting Patient-Specific Expansion of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms

Objective: Local anatomy and the patient's risk profile independently affect the expansion rate of an abdominal aortic aneurysm. We describe a hybrid method that combines finite element modelling and statistical methods to predict patient-specific aneurysm expansion. Methods: The 3-D geometry of the aneurysm was imaged with computed tomography. We used finite element methods to calculate wall stress and aneurysm expansion. Expansion rate was adjusted by risk factors obtained from a database of 80 patients. Aneurysm diameters predicted with and without the risk profiles were compared with diameters measured with ultrasound for 11 patients. Results: For this specific group of patients, local anatomy contributed 62% and the risk profile 38% to the aneurysmal expansion rate. Predictions with risk profiles resulted in smaller root mean square errors than predictions without risk profiles (2.9 vs. 4.0 mm, p < 0.01). Conclusions: This hybrid approach predicted aneurysmal expansion for a period of 30 months with high accuracy.

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