Effect of the correction for noncompliance and contamination on the estimated reduction of metastatic prostate cancer within a randomized screening trial (ERSPC section Rotterdam).

The European Randomized study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) has recently reported a 20% reduction in death from prostate cancer in a population-based prostate cancer screening (core age group: 55-69 years of age). The effect of screening may be diluted by noncompliance in the screening arm and contamination by PSA testing in the control arm. The purpose is to analyze the effect of prostate cancer screening on the incidence of metastatic prostate cancer, both with and without adjustment for noncompliance and contamination. We analyzed the occurrence of metastases in 42,376 men aged 55-75 years who were randomized in the Rotterdam section of the ERSPC between 1993 and 1999. Contamination adjustment was based on follow-up findings and questionnaire data from all men in the control group who developed prostate cancer and from a random sample of 291 men without cancer who had a PSA test. Prostate cancer screening significantly reduced the occurrence of metastatic prostate cancer in the intention-to-screen analysis [RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.59-0.95, p = 0.02] and more so in adjusted analyses; contamination adjusted RR 0.73, 95% CI 0.56-0.96; noncompliance adjusted RR 0.72, 95% CI 0.55-0.95 and fully adjusted analysis RR 0.68, 95% CI 0.49-0.94, p = 0.02. In the population of ERSPC Rotterdam (N = 42,376 men), screening reduces the risk to be diagnosed with metastatic prostate cancer considerably on population level, an effect which is even more pronounced in men who are in fact screened.

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