Detection rates of cancer, high grade PIN and atypical lesions suspicious for cancer in the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer

The aim of the study: This article presents the incidence of prostate cancer, isolated high grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PIN) and atypical lesions suspicious for prostate cancer (LSPC) during subsequent screening rounds in the centres of five of the countries participating in the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC). The incidence and predictive value of high grade PIN and LSPC for prostate cancer in subsequent biopsy following these diagnoses were evaluated. Patients and methods: Study group consisted of 56,653 screened men in the ERSPC centres of Finland, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland, who underwent 3-7 screening rounds at 2-4 year interval. Data for prostate cancer were obtained from the ERSPC central database. Data for high grade PIN and LSPC were gathered from each ERSPC centre. Detection rates of subsequent prostate cancer in the first re-biopsy after these diagnoses were determined. Results: The average cancer detection rate was 3.5%, 3.2% and 3.5% for the completed rounds 1, 2 and 3, respectively, in all five centres. Incidence of high grade PIN increased from 1.5% in the first round to 5.0% in the third round, varying among centres in the first round between 0.8% and 7.6%. The cancer detection rate in the first re-biopsy after the diagnosis of high grade PIN was 12.9%. Incidence of LSPC was 2.4%, 2.7%, 2.2% and 2.6% in the first, second, third and fourth round, respectively. The cancer detection rate at the first re-biopsy after the diagnosis of LSPC was in average 33.8%. Conclusions: Cancer detection rate was stable during the three screening rounds. The wide variation in frequency in particular of high grade PIN among the ERSPC centres suggests a considerable inter-observer variation. The average comparatively low detection rate of isolated high grade PIN in the first screening round may be screening-related, while its consistent increase during three screening rounds could be the consequence of a.o. previous screening and ageing of the population. The observed low risk of prostate cancer after isolated high grade PIN in this screening setting is in line with the current recommendation to abstain from early repeat biopsies after this diagnosis. The association of LSPC with high incidence of prostate cancer in re-biopsies confirms the need for early repeat biopsies and follow-up of these men. The low percentage of LSPC (<3% of biopsies) throughout all rounds is reassuring as it limits the biopsy burden in a screening setting.

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