Forecasting long-memory left-right political orientations
This paper considers out-of-sample forecasting of left–right political orientations of party affiliates in the Netherlands, using weekly data from 973 independent national Dutch surveys conducted between 1978 and 1996. The orientations of left-wing and right-wing party affiliates tend to converge over time in the sense that the differences between the average positions tend to decline. The left–right series also reveal long-memory properties in the sense that shocks appear to be highly persistent. We develop forecasting models that account for these data features and we derive the relevant forecast intervals.
|Keywords||convergence, fractional integration, left-right political orientation|
|Persistent URL||dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(98)00064-8, hdl.handle.net/1765/2153|
|Journal||International Journal of Forecasting|
Franses, Ph.H.B.F, Eisinga, R, & Ooms, M. (1999). Forecasting long-memory left-right political orientations. International Journal of Forecasting, 185–199. doi:10.1016/S0169-2070(98)00064-8