This paper investigates the application of the Delphi methodology for the identification of future fields of standardisation complemented by a methodological extension by using various science and technology indicators. By the term standardisation, we broadly mean the process of developing and implementing technical standards within a standardisation body. Underlining the explorative nature of this paper, we describe the process of identifying future fields of standardisation. To provide a systematic forecasting view on complex science and technology fields, a combination of quantitative indicator-based analyses and qualitative in-depth Delphi surveys is choosen. Firstly, statistical analyses of suitable indicators are used to identify dynamic developments in such fields. Secondly, to identify detailed challenges for future standardisation, qualitative Delphi surveys are conducted. To collect and evaluate relevant issues the respective expert communities were included. They were identified by using information derived from the science and technology databases used. The paper concludes with the assessment of the chosen approach and give practical insights for its feasibility based on a review of the existing literature on the Delphi methodology. In addition, an outlook for further improvements and other possible fields of application is given.

Delphi, Science and technology indicators, Standardisation foresight,
ERIM Article Series (EAS)
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Erasmus Research Institute of Management

Goluchowicz, K, & Blind, K. (2011). Identification of future fields of standardisation: An explorative application of the Delphi methodology. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(9), 1526–1541. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2011.04.014