Mathematical modelling of SARS and other infectious diseases in China: A review

Objective To give an overview of the recent history of publications on mathematical modelling of infectious diseases in the Chinese literature, and a more detailed review of the models on severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Method Literature review through the Chinese CAJ full-text database. Results The number of Chinese publications on mathematical modelling has at least quadrupled since the SARS epidemic in 2003. This increase not only included papers on SARS, but also on various other infectious diseases, indicating a substantial expansion of modelling experience in China. Typical problems of most studies were poor availability of data and lack of involvement of disease experts and decision-makers rendering the studies less useful for policies on control. Conclusions We expect that the recent experience on modelling and current better access to and exchange of epidemiological data have paved the way for a more substantial role of this discipline during possible future outbreaks of infectious diseases. By making Chinese modelling initiatives more visible to non-Chinese readers, we hope to attract more international collaborators.

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