Uncertainty in decision-making: Value of additional information in the cost-effectiveness of lifestyle intervention in overweight and obese people

Objectives: To quantify the uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness of lifestyle intervention versus standard care in overweight and obese people in Switzerland and to determine if further research is necessary based on current information. There has been an increasing interest in using value of information analysis in medical decision-making to quantify the uncertainty in decision-making, and to identify the need for further research. Methods: Value of information analysis was applied on a probabilistic cost-effectiveness model to evaluate the uncertainty by calculating the patient expected value of perfect information (EVPI), population EVPI, and partial EVPI. The costs were expressed in Swiss Francs (CHF), price year 2006. Results: Overall, the EVPI was higher in overweight than in obese people. The maximum population EVPI was CHF 6.8 million in overweight people and CHF 3.2 million in moderate obese people, representing the upper limit on costs associated with decision uncertainty. The partial EVPI estimated a higher uncertainty in the model parameters such as utilities, body mass index, cardiovascular risk factors, and systolic blood pressure in overweight and moderate obese subjects. Conclusions: The EVPI analysis indicates that there is some uncertainty regarding the choice between lifestyle intervention and standard care. The parameter EVPI suggests that if further research is commissioned, this should focus on the effectiveness of lifestyle intervention on cardiovascular risk factors and utilities.

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