Averting Currency Crises: The Pros and Cons of Financial Openness
We identify the benefits and costs of financial openness in terms of currency crises based on a novel quantification of the systemic impact of currency (financial) crises. We find that systemic currency crises mainly exist regionally, and that financial openness helps diminish the probability of a currency crisis after controlling for their systemic impact. To clarify further the effect of financial openness, we decompose it into the various types of capital inflows. We find that the reduction of the probability of a currency crisis depends on the type of capital and on the region. Finally yet importantly, we find that monetary policy geared towards price stability, through a flexible inflation target that takes into account systemic impact, reduces the probability of a currency crisis.
|Keywords||capital flows, exchange market pressure, systematic risk|
|JEL||Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects) (jel E52), Foreign Exchange (jel F31), Financial Aspects of Economic Integration (jel F36), Open Economy Macroeconomics (jel F41), International Policy Coordination and Transmission (jel F42)|
|Persistent URL||dx.doi.org/http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30218/, hdl.handle.net/1765/32458|
Garita, G.A, & Zhou, C. (2011). Averting Currency Crises: The Pros and Cons of Financial Openness. doi:http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/30218/