Collectible postage stamp prices in the Netherlands witnessed a bubble in the late 1970’s, while prices rapidly floored in the mid 1980’s. We analyze 500 individual stamps prices (instead of a single index) to examine if the bubble could somehow have been predicted and whether there were early warning signals. Also, we study whether the characteristics of these stamps mediated the bubble and the price landing afterwards. Scarcity and initial price levels seem to have predictive value in various dimensions. Implications for recognizing bubbles in other asset prices are discussed.

Additional Metadata
Keywords forecasting, positive feedback, postage stamps, price bubbles
JEL Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions (jel G11), Asset Pricing (jel G12), Economics of the Arts and Literature (jel Z11)
Publisher Erasmus School of Economics
Persistent URL hdl.handle.net/1765/38700
Series Econometric Institute Research Papers
Journal Report / Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Citation
Franses, Ph.H.B.F, & Knecht, W. (2012). The Late 1970's Bubble in Dutch Collectible Postage Stamps (No. EI 2013-02). Report / Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam (pp. 1–2). Erasmus School of Economics. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/38700