A Non-Parametric and Entropy Based Analysis of the Relationship between the VIX and S&P 500
This paper features an analysis of the relationship between the S&P 500 Index and the VIX using daily data obtained from both the CBOE website and SIRCA (The Securities Industry Research Centre of the Asia Pacific). We explore the relationship between the S&P 500 daily continuously compounded return series and a similar series for the VIX in terms of a long sample drawn from the CBOE running from 1990 to mid 2011 and a set of returns from SIRCA's TRTH datasets running from March 2005 to-date. We divide this shorter sample, which captures the behaviour of the new VIX, introduced in 2003, into four roughly equivalent sub-samples which permit the exploration of the impact of the Global Financial Crisis. We apply to our data sets a series of non-parametric based tests utilising entropy based metrics. These suggest that the PDFs and CDFs of these two return distributions change shape in various subsample periods. The entropy and MI statistics suggest that the degree of uncertainty attached to these distributions changes through time and using the S&P 500 return as the dependent variable, that the amount of information obtained from the VIX also changes with time and reaches a relative maximum in the most recent period from 2011 to 2012. The entropy based non-parametric tests of the equivalence of the two distributions and their symmetry all strongly reject their respective nulls. The results suggest that parametric techniques do not adequately capture the complexities displayed in the behaviour of these series. This has practical implications for hedging utilising derivatives written on the VIX, which will be the focus of a subsequent study.
|Keywords||S&P 500, VIX entropy, non-parametric estimation, quantile regressions|
|JEL||Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods (jel C14), Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions (jel C22), Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage; Ratings and Ratings Agencies (jel G24), Financing Policy; Capital and Ownership Structure (jel G32)|
|Series||Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper Series|
|Journal||Discussion paper / Tinbergen Institute|
|Note||Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 13-018/III|
Allen, D.E, McAleer, M.J, Powell, R.J, & Singh, A.K. (2013). A Non-Parametric and Entropy Based Analysis of the Relationship between the VIX and S&P 500 (No. TI 13-018/III). Discussion paper / Tinbergen Institute (pp. 1–21). Tinbergen Institute. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/38750