Against the background of a collapse of world trade and predictions in March 2009 by IMF, WTO and World Bank of a relatively quick rebound, this paper analyses how major post 1980 financial crises have impacted on import volumes of individual countries. The article finds that on average imports contracted by 25% during a period of 5 quarters, but argues that this provides a minimum estimate only for the depth and duration of the present world trade collapse.

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Journal Kyklos: international review for social sciences
van Bergeijk, P.A.G. (2009). Expected extent and potential duration of the world import crunch. Kyklos: international review for social sciences, 62(4), 479–487. doi:10.1111/j.1467-6435.2009.00446.x