Considerable methodological research has been conducted on handling uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis. The current literature suggests the concepts of net health benefits and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves to circumvent the technical shortcomings of cost-effectiveness ratio statistics. However, these approaches do not provide a solution for the inherent problem that the threshold cost-effectiveness ratio itself is unknown. The authors suggest analysing uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis by directly addressing the concept of opportunity costs using the decision rule described by Birch and Gafni (1992) and introduce a new graphical framework (the 'decision making plane') for communicating with policy makers. Copyright

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Health Economics
Erasmus School of Health Policy & Management (ESHPM)

Sendi, P.P, Gafni, A, & Birch, D.G. (2002). Opportunity costs and uncertainty in the economic evaluation of health care interventions. Health Economics, 11(1), 23–31. doi:10.1002/hec.641