Anti-müllerian hormone is a promising predictor for the occurrence of the menopausal transition

Objective: Age at menopause and age at the start of the preceding period of cycle irregularity (menopausal transition) show considerable individual variation. In this study we explored several markers for their ability to predict the occurrence of the transition to menopause. Design: A group of 81 normal women between 25 and 46 years of age visited the clinic two times (at T 1 and T 2) with an average interval of 4 years. All had a regular menstrual cycle pattern at T 1. At T 1, anti-müllerian hormone (AMH), follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), inhibin B and estradiol (E 2) were measured, and an antral follicle count (AFC) was made during the early follicular phase. At T 2, information regarding cycle length and variability was obtained. Menopause transition was defined as a mean cycle length of less than 21 days or more than 35 days or as a mean cycle length of 21 to 35 days, but with the next cycle not predictable within 7 days during the last half year. A logistic regression analysis was performed, with the outcome measure as menopause transition. The area under the receiver operating curve (ROC AUC) was calculated as a measure of predictive accuracy. Results: In 14 volunteers, the cycle had become irregular at T 2. Compared with women with a regular cycle at T 2, these women were significantly older (median 44.7 vs 39.8 y, P < 0.001) and differed significantly in AFC, AMH, FSH, and inhibin B levels assessed at T 1. All parameters with the exception of E 2 were significantly associated with the occurrence of cycle irregularity; AMH, AFC, and age had the highest predictive accuracy (ROC AUC 0.87, 0.80, and 0.82, respectively). After adjusting for age, only AMH and inhibin B were significantly associated with cycle irregularity. Inclusion of inhibin B and age to AMH in a multivariable model improved the predictive accuracy (ROC AUC 0.92). Conclusions: The novel marker AMH is a promising predictor for the occurrence of menopausal transition within 4 years. Adding inhibin B improved the prediction. Therefore, AMH alone or in combination with inhibin B may well prove a useful indicator for the reproductive status of an individual woman.

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