Predicting educational success and attrition in problem-based learning: Do first impressions count?

This study examines whether tutors (N = 15) in a problem-based learning curriculum were able to predict students' success in their first year and their entire bachelor programme. Tutors were asked to rate each student in their tutorial group in terms of the chance that this student would successfully finish their first year and the entire bachelor programme. The results indicated that tutors can predict students' first-year success and attrition in the bachelor programme, even on top of prior grades. Moreover, tutors seem to be better at predicting completion of the first year and bachelor programme versus failure or non-completion. The results suggest that tutors can assess whether students will be successful at an early stage of the programme. Tutor judgments of students' future success have the potential to be used as an additional source of information to identify students at risk of leaving college without a degree.

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