This paper discusses the measurement of production and employment effects of trade policy, and more broadly the effects of economic integration and globalization. First, it provides a broad-brush overview of the ex-post literature linking trade to performance, such as measures of worker displacement, adjustment costs, and econometric evidence on trade and wages. It then defines structural impact indexes, illustrating their use with a stylized CGE model-based assessment of the impact of EU enlargement on the transition economies. Finally, the last section discusses the gap between our ex-post experience with adjustment costs, and what ex-ante methods actually tell us.

adjustment costs, labour displacement, output effects of trade liberalization
Commercial Policy; Protection; Promotion; Trade Negotiations; International Organizations (jel F13), Trade and Labor Market Interactions (jel F16), Trade Forecasting and Simulation (jel F17)
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper Series
Tinbergen Institute

François, J.F. (2004). Assessing the Impact of Trade Policy on Labor Markets and Production (No. TI 04-058/2). Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper Series. Retrieved from