Objectives: We evaluated the predictive performance of the stroke risk functions from the Framingham and the Cardiovascular Health Study in a population-based study in The Netherlands. Methods: We assessed how well the functions could estimate the number of strokes in the Rotterdam Study, and how well they could discriminate between high- and low-risk persons. Results: Both functions predicted the number of stroke cases reasonably well, except in persons with a predicted 5-year risk higher than 5%, where they overestimated the risk. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve was 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.78) for both functions. Conclusions: Stroke risk functions developed in US populations predict the number of strokes reasonably well in elderly Western European persons at low or modest risk for stroke. The functions can be a useful tool to discriminate between persons at high or low risk for stroke. Copyright

Cerebrovascular disorders, Cohort studies, Risk assessment, Risk factors, Stroke
dx.doi.org/10.1159/000079951, hdl.handle.net/1765/66747
Department of Neurology

Vokó, Z, Hollander, M, Koudstaal, P.J, Hofman, A, & Breteler, M.M.B. (2004). How do American stroke risk functions perform in a Western European population?. Neuroepidemiology, 23(5), 247–253. doi:10.1159/000079951