How Large is Average Economic Growth? Evidence from a Robust Method

This paper puts forward a method to estimate average economic growth, and its associated confidence bounds, which does not require a formal decision on potential unit root properties. The method is based on the analysis of either difference-stationary or trend-stationary time series models, implementing the robust bootstrapping procedure advocated in Romano and Wolf (2001). Simulation evidence indicates the practical relevance of the method. It is illustrated on quarterly post-war US industrial production.