Patterns in transitions: Understanding complex chains of change
Technological Forecasting and Social Change , Volume 78 - Issue 1 p. 90- 102
This article presents a multi-pattern approach for the description and understanding of the dynamics of societal transitions. The central idea is that any transition path can be considered a concatenation of patterns. Although theorising on transitions has advanced greatly, a coherent and integral approach was still lacking. Therefore, the current conceptual language of transitions is reframed and expanded from a complexity view on societal systems. The resulting theoretical framework straightforwardly leads to the identification of the patterns presented. The Dutch healthcare system is used to demonstrate how this multi-pattern approach could be used to describe transitions and make storylines. Furthermore a typology of transition paths derived from this approach is presented as another way in which these patterns may be used.
|Complexity, Societal systems, Storylines, Transition paths, Transition patterns|
|Technological Forecasting and Social Change|
|Organisation||Erasmus School of Social and Behavioural Sciences|
de Haan, J, & Rotmans, J. (2011). Patterns in transitions: Understanding complex chains of change. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(1), 90–102. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2010.10.008