This paper extends de Finetti's betting-odds method for assessing subjective beliefs to ambiguous events. Thus, a tractable manner for measuring decision weights under ambiguity is obtained. De Finetti's method is so transparent that decision makers can evaluate the relevant tradeoffs in complex situations. The resulting data can easily be analyzed, using nonparametric techniques. Our extension is implemented in an experiment on predicting next-day's performance of the Dow Jones and Nikkei stock indexes, where we test the existence and nature of rank dependence, finding usual patterns. We also find violations of rank dependence.

Ambiguity, Inverse-S, Optimism, Pessimism, Prospect theory, Rank-dependent utility
dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11166-007-9011-z, hdl.handle.net/1765/69137
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty
Erasmus School of Economics

Diecidue, E, Wakker, P.P, & Zeelenberg, M. (2007). Eliciting decision weights by adapting de Finetti's betting-odds method to prospect theory. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 34(3), 179–199. doi:10.1007/s11166-007-9011-z