Improving judgmental adjustment of model-based forecasts
Many managers have access to statistical model-based forecasts and can use these to create their own forecasts. To the analyst, who aims to evaluate forecast accuracy, it is usually unknown to what extent managers use those model forecasts. Moreover, in other situations the analyst may additionally not even have access to those model-based forecasts. The present survey reports on recent developments within this context which concern an understanding of the creation of such managers' forecasts given that model forecasts are potentially incorporated and the evaluation of their accuracy. A variety of further research topics are given.
|Keywords||Expert forecasts, Forecast accuracy, Statistical model forecasts|
|Persistent URL||dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.matcom.2012.11.007, hdl.handle.net/1765/71919|
|Journal||Mathematics and Computers in Simulation|
Franses, Ph.H.B.F. (2013). Improving judgmental adjustment of model-based forecasts. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 93, 1–8. doi:10.1016/j.matcom.2012.11.007