Prognostic models for stillbirth and neonatal death in very preterm birth: A validation study

OBJECTIVES: To validate externally 2 prognostic models for stillbirth and neonatal death in very preterm infants who are either known to be alive at the onset of labor or admitted for neonatal intensive care. PATIENTS AND METHODS: All infants, with gestational age 22 to 32 weeks, of European ethnicity, known to be alive at the onset of labor (n = 17 582) and admitted for neonatal intensive care (n = 11 578), who were born in the Netherlands between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2007. The main outcome measures were stillbirth or death within 28 days for infants known to be alive at the onset of labor and death before discharge from the NICU for infants admitted for intensive care. Model performance was studied with calibration plots and c statistic. RESULTS: Of the infants known to be alive at the onset of labor, 16.7% (n = 2939) died during labor or within 28 days of birth, and 7.8% (n = 908) of the infants admitted for neonatal intensive care died before discharge from intensive care. The prognostic model for infants known to be alive at the onset of labor showed good calibration and excellent discrimination (c statistic 0.92). The prognostic model for infants admitted for neonatal intensive care showed good calibration and good discrimination (c statistic 0.82). CONCLUSIONS: The 2 prognostic models for stillbirth and neonatal death in very preterm Dutch infants showed good performance, suggesting their use in clinical practice in the Netherlands and possibly other Western countries. Copyright

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