A Novel Approach to Measuring Consumer Confidence
This paper puts forward a new data collection method to measure daily consumer confidence at the individual level. The data thus obtained allow to statistically analyze the dynamic correlation of such a consumer confidence indicator and to draw inference on transition rates. The latter is not possible for currently available monthly data collected by statistical agencies on the basis of repeated cross-sections. In an application to measuring Dutch consumer confidence, we show that the incremental information content in the novel indicator helps to better forecast consumption.
|Keywords||Consumer confidence, Randomized sampling, Markov transition model, consumption|
|JEL||Models with Panel Data (jel C33), Survey Methods (jel C42), Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data (jel C81), Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (jel E20)|
|Publisher||Erasmus University Rotterdam|
|Series||Econometric Institute Research Papers , Econometric Institute Reprint Series|
de Bruijn, L.P, Segers, R, & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. (2014). A Novel Approach to Measuring Consumer Confidence (No. EI-1670). Econometric Institute Reprint Series. Erasmus University Rotterdam. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/77640