November 2006 most likely marks the launch of Sony’s PS3, the successor to PS2. Later, Nintendo is expected to launch the Wii, the successor to the GameCube. We answer the question in the title by analyzing the diffusion of the earlier generations of these consoles, and by using a new model that extends the successive-generations model of Norton and Bass (1987) by introducing two market players. Based on interviews with consumers and with retailers, we calibrate part of this model. The main outcome is that an optimal launch time is around June 2007, as then total sales of Nintendo’s GameCube and Wii would get maximized.

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Erasmus Research Institute of Management
hdl.handle.net/1765/7867
ERIM Report Series Research in Management
ERIM report series research in management Erasmus Research Institute of Management
Erasmus Research Institute of Management

Franses, Ph.H.B.F, & Hernández-Mireles, C. (2006). When Should Nintendo Launch its Wii? Insights From a Bivariate Successive Generation Model (No. ERS-2006-032-MKT). ERIM report series research in management Erasmus Research Institute of Management. Erasmus Research Institute of Management. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/7867