Demographic Development and the Exhaustion of Natural Resources

The problems created by the population explosion, pollution, and resource scarcity, although not yet well understood, are likely to require curbs on future rates of economic and population growth. Targets for population and income in developed and developing countries for the year 2012 are constructed, assuming relatively successful birth control throughout the world and curtailed economic growth in the developed countries. The gap between per capita incomes of the richest and poorest countries is narrowed but still large--the top decile of countries (weighted by population size) is more than six times greater than the lowest decile. Considerable redistribution of income between countries is implied in the assumptions, and it is argued that redistribution within countries must accompany the brake on growth. Birth control and extended education can assist in achieving the latter redistribution.