Collectible postage stamp prices in the Netherlands witnessed a bubble in the late 1970s, while prices rapidly floored in the mid-1980s. We analyze 500 individual stamps prices (instead of a single index) to examine whether the bubble could somehow have been predicted and whether there were early warning signals. Also, we study whether the characteristics of these stamps mediated the bubble and the price landing afterward. Scarcity and initial price levels appear to have predictive value in various dimensions. Implications for recognizing bubbles in other asset prices are discussed.

Additional Metadata
Keywords Forecasting, Philately, Positive feedback, Postage stamps, Price bubbles
JEL Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions (jel G11), Asset Pricing (jel G12), Economics of the Arts and Literature (jel Z11)
Persistent URL dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00181-015-0974-3, hdl.handle.net/1765/80124
Series Econometric Institute Reprint Series
Journal Empirical Economics: a quarterly journal of the Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna
Citation
Franses, Ph.H.B.F, & Knecht, W. (Wouter). (2016). The late 1970s bubble in Dutch collectible postage stamps. Empirical Economics: a quarterly journal of the Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, 50(4), 1215–1228. doi:10.1007/s00181-015-0974-3