Schumpeter’s line of thought of multiple economic cycles is further investigated. The existence of multiple cycles in economic variables is demonstrated. In basic innovations five different cycles are found. Multiple cycle structures are shown in various macro-economic variables from the United Kingdom, the United States of America and the Netherlands. It is remarkable that the lengths in years of the individual cycles are similar to the Fibonnaci sequence. This relationship has never been found before in the economy. This sequence is well known in the scientific fields of biology, physics and astronomy. It can also be observed in art, music and architecture. The existence of this relationship gives a new perspective on macro- economic relationships and economic growth. The multiple cycle approach is also applied to the Dutch economy. On the basis of a 5 and 11 year cycle present in the Dutch Gross Domestic Product (GDP) a long term forecast model is developed. At the same time a new real time indicator, also known as “nowcast indicator”, of Dutch GDP is developed. This indicator serves as a thermometer of the Dutch economy and is called the “Econometric Institute Current Indicator of the Economy” (EICIE). In contract to most other forecast models, which are much larger, this forecast model is based upon a single equation. The model is based on a single explanatory real variable, namely staffing data from Randstad Staffing Services.

Additional Metadata
Keywords Business cycles, EICIE, Fibonacci, Granger causes, Kondratieff, Real GDP, Schumpeter, VECM, cointegration, economic cycles, forecasting, harmonic Poisson regression, innovation, long waves, multiple cycles, nowcasting, staffing services
JEL Statistical Decision Theory; Operations Research (jel C44), Forecasting and Simulation (jel E17), Business Fluctuations; Cycles (jel E32), Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting (jel M), Marketing (jel M31), Ecological Economics: Ecosystem Services; Biodiversity Conservation; Bioeconomics; Industrial Ecology (jel Q57)
Promotor Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans) , H.R. Commandeur (Harry)
Publisher Erasmus University Rotterdam , Erasmus Research Institute of Management
Sponsor C.G. de Vries, D.J.C. van Dijk, J. Veenman
ISBN 978-90-5892-123-9
Persistent URL hdl.handle.net/1765/8216
Series ERIM Ph.D. Series Research in Management
Citation
de Groot, E.A. (2006, May 11). Essays On Economic Cycles (No. 91). ERIM Ph.D. Series Research in Management. Erasmus Research Institute of Management. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/8216