Objective: This article predicts the future epidemiology of HIV-2 in Caió, a rural region of Guinea Bissau; and investigates whether HIV-2, which has halved in prevalence between 1990 and 2007 and is now almost absent in young adults in Caió, can persist as an infection of the elderly. Design: A mathematical model of the spread of HIV-2 was tailored to the epidemic in Caió, a village in Guinea-Bissau. Methods: An age-stratified difference equation model of HIV-2 transmission was fitted to age-stratified HIV-2 incidence and prevalence data from surveys conducted in Caió in 1990, 1997 and 2007. A stochastic version of the same model was used to make projections. Results: HIV-2 infection is predicted to continue to rapidly decline in Caió such that new infections will cease and prevalence will reach low levels (e.g. below 0.1%) within a few decades. HIV-2 is not predicted to persist in the elderly.

Age, Epidemiology, Extinction, HIV-2, Incidence, Mathematical model, Prevalence
dx.doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0000000000000844, hdl.handle.net/1765/82949
Department of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases

Fryer, H.R, Van Tienen, C, van der Loeff, M.S, Aaby, P, Da Silva, Z.J, Whittle, H, … de Silva, T.I. (2015). Predicting the extinction of HIV-2 in rural Guinea-Bissau. AIDS, 29(18), 2479–2486. doi:10.1097/QAD.0000000000000844