Microsimulation can be used to predict the prognosis of an individual patient based on a virtual patient population of copies of that patient. In this study we compare the outcomes of an existing validated microsimulation program that is designed to study valvular heart disease and a newly developed microsimulation program that is designed to study heart diseases in general. We studied in depth the results of both systems to model the prognosis of a 40 year old male patient undergoing allograft surgery. Furthermore we studied the model results in relation to age and sex to provide a general overview of the most important outcome variables including operative mortality, average survival time, average event free time and average time to reoperation. Our results show a good agreement between the two systems regarding all simulations of allograft surgery. We intend to use the newly developed software to explore other disease/event related prognostic models.

Computing in Cardiology 2011, CinC 2011
Erasmus MC: University Medical Center Rotterdam

Barendse, R., Battes, L., Kardys, I., Takkenberg, H., van der Putten, N., & Boersma, E. (2011). A general microsimulation toolkit for patient specific predictions, treatment efficiency and life expectancy. Presented at the Computing in Cardiology 2011, CinC 2011. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/83349