Comparing the cost-effectiveness of four novel risk markers for screening asymptomatic individuals to prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the US population

Background High sensitivity CRP (hsCRP), coronary artery calcification on CT (CT calcium), carotid artery intima media thickness on ultrasound (cIMT) and ankle-brachial index (ABI) improve prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, but the benefit of screening with these novel risk markers in the U.S. population is unclear. Methods and results A microsimulation model evaluating lifelong cost-effectiveness for individuals aged 40-85 at intermediate risk of CVD, using 2003-2004 NHANES-III (N = 3736), Framingham Heart Study, U.S. Vital Statistics, meta-analyses of independent predictive effects of the four novel risk markers and treatment effects was constructed. Using both an intention-to-treat (assumes adherence < 100% and incorporates disutility from taking daily medications) and an as-treated (100% adherence and no disutility) analysis, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), lifetime costs (2014 US $), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER in $/QALY gained) of screening with hsCRP, CT coronary calcium, cIMT and ABI were established compared with current practice, full adherence to current guidelines, and ubiquitous statin therapy. In the intention-to-treat analysis in men, screening with CT calcium was cost effective ($32,900/QALY) compared with current practice. In women, screening with hsCRP was cost effective ($32,467/QALY). In the as-treated analysis, statin therapy was both more effective and less costly than all other strategies for both men and women. Conclusions When a substantial disutility from taking daily medication is assumed, screening men with CT coronary calcium is likely to be cost-effective whereas screening with hsCRP has value in women. The individual perceived disutility for taking daily medication should play a key role in the decision.

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