Empirical evidence on the currency carry trade, 1900-2012
Most of the currency literature investigates the risk and return characteristics of the currency carry trade after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. In order to gauge the long-term currency carry premium, we extend the sample to 20 currencies over the period 1900 to 2012. We find modest Sharpe ratios in the range of 0.2-0.4 for carry trading over this period. This is markedly lower than the Sharpe ratios above 0.6 reported for recent sample periods. We document that carry trading occasionally incurs substantial losses, which fits well with risk-based explanations for deviations from uncovered interest parity. We find that large carry trading losses do not necessarily coincide with large losses in global equity markets. Our results help to better understand the source and nature of excess returns on the carry trade.
|Currency carry trade, Currency crisis, E42, F31, Foreign exchange, Forward discount, G15, N20|
|ERIM Top-Core Articles|
|Journal of International Money and Finance: theoretical and empirical research in international economics and finance|
|Organisation||Erasmus University Rotterdam|
Doskov, N, & Swinkels, L.A.P. (2015). Empirical evidence on the currency carry trade, 1900-2012. Journal of International Money and Finance: theoretical and empirical research in international economics and finance, 51, 370–389. doi:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.12.001