Validation of Six Nomograms for Predicting Non-sentinel Lymph Node Metastases in a Dutch Breast Cancer Population

Background: The usefulness of axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) in patients with positive sentinel nodes (SN) is still an ongoing debate. Several nomograms have been developed for predicting non-sentinel lymph node metastases (NSLNM). We validated six nomograms using data from 10 years of breast cancer surgery in our hospital. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed all patients with a proven breast malignancy and a SN procedure between 2001 and 2011 in our hospital. Results: Data from 1084 patients were reviewed; 260 (24 %) had a positive SN. No patients with isolated tumor cells, 6 patients (8 %) with micrometastases, and 65 patients (41 %) with macrometastases had additional axillary NSLNM. In 2 patients (3 %) with micrometastases, the ALND influenced postoperative treatment. In the group of patients with macrometastases tumor size >2 cm, extranodal growth and having no negative SNs were predictors of NSLNM. The revised MD Anderson Cancer Center and Helsinki nomograms performed the best, with an area under the curve value of 0.78. Conclusions: ALND could probably be safely omitted in most patients with micrometastases but is still indicated in patients with macrometastases, especially in patients with tumor size >2 cm, extranodal growth, and no negative SNs. The revised MD Anderson Cancer Center and Helsinki nomograms were the most predictive in our patient group.

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