Early identification and characterization of students who drop out in the first year at University

At Erasmus School of Economics about 40% of the students in the bachelor program Economics and Business drop out in the first academic year. We examined whether it is feasible (a) to identify on the basis of their participation and achievement in the first 2 (out of 10) examinations students who drop out in the first year, and (b) to characterize these students by motivational aspects. Of all students who started the bachelor program Economics and Business between 2007 and 2009 (n = 1576) the results on the first 2 (out of 10) exams in the first year were collected. Students were divided into subgroups based on their participation and performance on these exams. For each subgroup the percentage of first-year dropout was determined. Subgroups were compared on motivational aspects. Both students who did not participate in the first 2 exams and students who did not pass at least 1 of these exams had a very high probability of dropping out in the first year. Moreover, these students had the lowest intrinsic motivation at the start of their studies. Based on these observations we conclude that early identification and characterization of students who drop out in the first year is feasible.

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