Making a prognosis is to predict the course of a disease and estimate the probability (or risk) of the appearance of a given outcome in relationship to clinical or non-clinical characteristics. Prognostic assessment is usually modelled by multivariable mathematic equations (prognostic models). In this article we describe what a prognostic model is, how to build a good one, why and how it is important to evaluate its generalizability and accuracy by means of discrimination, calibration and reclassification.

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hdl.handle.net/1765/89894
Aging Clinical and Experimental Research
Department of Internal Medicine

Bolignano, D., Mattace Raso, F., Torino, C., D'Arrigo, G., Elhafeez, S. A., Provenzano, F., … Tripepi, G. (2012). Prognostic models in the clinical arena. Aging Clinical and Experimental Research (Vol. 24, pp. 300–304). Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/89894