Modeling intra-seasonal heterogeneity in hourly advertising-response models: Do forecasts improve?
We examine the situation in which hourly data are available for designing advertising-response models, whereas managerial decision-making can concern hourly, daily or weekly intervals. A key notion is that models for higher frequency data require the intra-seasonal heterogeneity to be addressed, while models for lower frequency data are much simpler. We use three large, actual real-life datasets to analyze the relevance of these additional efforts for managerial interpretation and for the out-of-sample forecast accuracy at various frequencies.
|Keywords||Advertising effectiveness, Advertising response, Aggregation, Normative and predictive validity|
|Persistent URL||dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.06.005, hdl.handle.net/1765/93895|
|Series||Econometric Institute Reprint Series|
|Journal||International Journal of Forecasting|
Kiygi Calli, M, Weverbergh, M, & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. (2017). Modeling intra-seasonal heterogeneity in hourly advertising-response models: Do forecasts improve?. International Journal of Forecasting, 33(1), 90–101. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.06.005