Forecasting the Yield Curve in a Data-Rich Environment using the Factor-Augmented Nelson-Siegel Model
Various ways of extracting macroeconomic information from a data-rich environment are compared with the objective of forecasting yield curves using the Nelson-Siegel model. Five issues in factor extraction are addressed, namely, selection of a subset of the available information, incorporation of the forecast objective in constructing factors, specification of a multivariate forecast objective, data grouping before constructing factors, and selection of the number of factors in a data-driven way. Our empirical results show that each of these features helps to improve forecast accuracy, especially for the shortest and longest maturities. The data-driven methods perform well in relatively volatile periods, when simpler models do not suffice.
|Keywords||Nelson-Siegel model, factor extraction, variable selection, yield curve prediction|
|Publisher||Erasmus School of Economics (ESE)|
Exterkate, P., P., van Dijk, D.J.C., Heij, C., & Groenen, P.J.F.. (2010). Forecasting the Yield Curve in a Data-Rich Environment using the Factor-Augmented Nelson-Siegel Model (No. EI 2010-06). Report / Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam (pp. 1–40). Erasmus School of Economics (ESE). Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/18254