Long-term forecast for theDutch economy
2006-01-24
Research Paper
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A strong link exists between Randstad's temporary sta±ng services and Dutch GDP. The two annual series share a stochastic trend and two long-swing deterministic cycles. Causality appears to run from temporary sta±ng to GDP and not vice versa. These features are taken aboard in a simple forecasting model for Dutch GDP growth for the period 2005-2015. The forecasts suggest growth rates around 2 per cent, with a dip to be expected around 2012-2013.
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- model
- growth
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- randstad
- gdp growth
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- cycle
- error correction model
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- randstad data
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- gdp growth rates
- franse
- correction
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- univariate
