This paper links judgemental adjustment of model-based forecasts with the potential presence of exceptional observations in time series. Specific attention is given to current and future additive outliers, as these require most consideration. A brief illustration to a quarterly real GDP series demonstrates various issues. The main focus of the paper is on various testable propositions, which should facilitate the creation and the evaluation of judgemental adjustment of time series forecasts.

Additional Metadata
Publisher Erasmus School of Economics
Persistent URL hdl.handle.net/1765/11705
Series Econometric Institute Research Papers
Journal Report / Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Citation
Franses, Ph.H.B.F. (2008). Outliers and judgemental adjustment of time series forecasts. (No. EI 2008-04). Report / Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam (pp. 1–14). Erasmus School of Economics. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/11705