The Impact of Design and Performance in Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening: Differences Between ERSPC Centers

The European Randomized study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) has shown a 20% relative reduction in prostate cancer mortality after 16 yr [rate ratio (RR) 0.80], but centers varied by attendance, screen interval, biopsy compliance, contamination in the control arm, and treatments. We used a microsimulation model, calibrated to the ERSPC individual-level data, to predict influence of study features on the results. The relative reduction in prostate cancer mortality would have been somewhat larger with improved study features: increased attendance (90% attendance in all volunteer-based and 70% in all population-based centers, resulting in RR 0.77), a 2-yr screen interval (RR 0.75), and an 80% biopsy compliance (RR 0.79). The RR would have been substantially lower with a 30% attendance (RR 0.92), 40% biopsy compliance (RR 0.90), or 100% contamination (RR 0.85). The variations in results by trial center may reflect differences in study design and performance and results of our simulations highlight the effect of quality indicators in prostate-specific antigen screening in different settings.

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