2011-04-01
Forecast combination across estimation windows
Publication
Publication
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , Volume 29 - Issue 2 p. 307- 318
In this article we consider combining forecasts generated from the same model but over different estimation windows. We develop theoretical results for random walks with breaks in the drift and volatility and for a linear regression model with a break in the slope parameter. Averaging forecasts over different estimation windows leads to a lower bias and root mean square forecast error (RMSFE) compared with forecasts based on a single estimation window for all but the smallest breaks. An application to weekly returns on 20 equity index futures shows that averaging forecasts over estimation windows leads to a smaller RMSFE than some competing methods.
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| , , , | |
| doi.org/10.1198/jbes.2010.09018, hdl.handle.net/1765/26871 | |
| Journal of Business and Economic Statistics | |
| Organisation | Erasmus School of Economics |
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Pesaran, H., & Pick, A. (2011). Forecast combination across estimation windows. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 29(2), 307–318. doi:10.1198/jbes.2010.09018 |
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