Recent dynamics in iron ore markets are driven by rapid changes in economic activities that affect commodity markets, trade flows, and shipping activities. Time series models for the relation between these variables in Southeast Asia and the Australasian region are supplemented with models for safety and pollution risk. Steel production in China, Japan, and South Korea is related to iron ore exports and vessel activity in Australia, with an estimated time lag of about two months. The Purchasing Manager Index, which is popular among traders as indicator of economic activity, is found to have predictive power both for steel production and for iron ore exports. The growth in economic activity and vessel movements is associated with significantly higher risks for ship accidents and pollution.

Southeast Asia, dry bulk, iron ore, maritime safety, pollution risk, steel production, time series analysis
Erasmus School of Economics
Econometric Institute Research Papers
Report / Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Erasmus School of Economics

Heij, C, & Knapp, S. (2012). Dynamics in the dry bulk market (No. EI 2012-18). Report / Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam (pp. 1–22). Erasmus School of Economics. Retrieved from