Long-term forecast for the Dutch economy

A strong link exists between Randstad's temporary sta±ng services and Dutch GDP. The two annual series share a stochastic trend and two long-swing deterministic cycles. Causality appears to run from temporary sta±ng to GDP and not vice versa. These features are taken aboard in a simple forecasting model for Dutch GDP growth for the period 2005-2015. The forecasts suggest growth rates around 2 per cent, with a dip to be expected around 2012-2013.