We propose in this paper a likelihood-based framework for cointegration analysis in panels of a fixed number of vector error correction models. Maximum likelihood estimators of the cointegrating vectors are constructed using iterated Generalized Method of Moments estimators. Using these estimators we construct likelihood ratio statistics to test for a common cointegration rank across the individual vector error correction models, both with heterogeneous and homogeneous cointegrating vectors. The corresponding limiting distributions are a summation of the limiting behavior of Johansen (1991) trace statistics. We also incorporate both unrestricted and restricted deterministic components which are either homogeneous or heterogeneous. The proposed framework is applied on a data set of exchange rates and appropriate monetary fundamentals. The test results show strong evidence for the validity of the monetary exchange rate model within a panel of vector error correction models for three major European countries, whereas the results based on individual vector error correction models for each of these countries separately are less supportive.

GMM, cointegration, common cointegration rank, exchange rates, likelihood, panels of vector errors correction models
Hypothesis Testing (jel C12), Models with Panel Data (jel C23), Model Construction and Estimation (jel C51), Foreign Exchange (jel F31), International Financial Markets (jel G15)
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper Series
Tinbergen Institute

Groen, J.J.J, & Kleibergen, F.R. (1999). Likelihood-Based Cointegration Analysis in Panels of Vector Error Correction Models (No. TI 99-055/4). Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper Series. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/7718