Modelling and Testing Volatility Spillovers in Oil and Financial Markets for USA, UK and China
The primary purpose of the paper is to analyze the conditional correlations, conditional covariances, and co-volatility spillovers between international crude oil and associated financial markets. The paper investigates co-volatility spillovers (namely, the delayed effect of a returns shock in one physical or financial asset on the subsequent volatility or co-volatility in another physical or financial asset) between the oil and financial markets. The oil industry has four major regions, namely North Sea, USA, Middle East, and South-East Asia. Associated with these regions are two major financial centers, namely UK and USA. For these reasons, the data to be used are the returns on alternative crude oil markets, returns on crude oil derivatives, specifically futures, and stock index returns in UK and USA. The paper will also analyze the Chinese financial markets, where the data are more recent. The empirical analysis will be based on the diagonal BEKK model, from which the conditional covariances will be used for testing co-volatility spillovers, and policy recommendations. Based on these results, dynamic hedging strategies will be suggested to analyze market fluctuations in crude oil prices and associated financial markets.
|Keywords||Co-volatility spillovers, crude oil, financial markets, spot, futures, diagonal BEKK, optimal dynamic hedging|
|JEL||Financial Econometrics (jel C58), Financial Markets (jel D53), Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing (jel G13), Capital Budgeting; Investment Policy (jel G31), Agriculture; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Other Primary Products (jel O13)|
|Series||Econometric Institute Research Papers|
|Note||The authors are grateful to Leh-Chyan So for helpful comments and suggestions. For financial support, the first author wishes to thank the National Science Council, Taiwan, and the second author acknowledges the Australian Research Council and the National Science Council, Taiwan.|
Chang, C-L, McAleer, M.J, & Tian, J. (2016). Modelling and Testing Volatility Spillovers in Oil and Financial Markets for USA, UK and China (No. EI2016-30). Econometric Institute Research Papers. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/93117